The potential impact of Elon Musk’s third-party threat: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

In today’s edition, Sahil Kapur breaks down the effect Elon Musk could have if he follows through with creating a third party. Plus, Scott Wong sits down with GOP Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska for an exit interview.

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— Adam Wollner

The potential impact of Elon Musk’s third-party threat

By Sahil Kapur

Elon Musk has vowed to create the “America Party,” which he says will “fight the Republican/Democrat Uniparty” and be serious about reducing the national debt.

Musk’s breaking point from the GOP: passage of President Donald Trump’s megabill, which is projected to increase the national debt by $3.3 trillion over the next 10 years.

Even if Musk files the paperwork to create the party, enormous hurdles loom. Gaining ballot access would be difficult in many states. Drawing in supporters would be daunting. And more broadly, breaking the two-party stranglehold on U.S. politics is easier said than done — as previous flirtations by groups like No Labels and national candidates like Michael Bloomberg taught them before they abandoned the pursuit.

But assuming for a moment that the world’s richest man marshals his resources to create the new party, what impact could it have? Recent national polls offer a clue about who is more likely to be attracted to it: Republican voters.

A Quinnipiac University national poll last month tested Musk’s popularity: It found that he’s viewed favorably by 62% of Republican voters but just 3% of Democratic voters. And in battleground Wisconsin, a recent Marquette University Law School poll found that three-quarters of Republicans have favorable opinions of him, compared with 1% of Democrats.

That suggests Musk has so thoroughly alienated Democrats that there’s little risk of their getting interested in his third party. But among Republicans? That’s a very different story. Both polls also found that Musk is considerably stronger with men than women, and the Wisconsin poll found that he’s more appealing to voters with incomes above $75,000 than those who make less.

So against the backdrop of a Musk-led party’s playing “spoiler” in a way that hurts Republicans, it’s no surprise Trump is unloading on him.

“I think it’s ridiculous to start a third party,” Trump told reporters Sunday. “We have a tremendous success with the Republican Party. The Democrats have lost their way, but it’s always been a two-party system. And I think starting a third party just adds to confusion.”

Don Bacon is done with Congress — but not necessarily with politics

As the “big, beautiful bill” was making its way to President Donald Trump’s desk last week, Scott Wong sat down with Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska, one of three Republicans to represent districts Kamala Harris carried last year.

Bacon said he didn’t have the “hunger” to seek a sixth term for his battleground House seat next year. But as he prepares to say goodbye to Congress, he made it clear he wasn’t quite ready to be completely done with politics.

Here are the key takeaways from the interview:

Ambitions: Bacon, an Air Force veteran, cracked the door open to running for president in 2028 or Nebraska governor down the road. He said he wouldn’t run against Gov. Jim Pillen, a close friend who took office in 2023. He’s also interested in becoming defense secretary, though he’s not sure he would ever be picked.

“I got asked the other day, ‘You say you’re interested in being an executive — is that governor or president?’ I go, ‘Yes,’” Bacon said. “If there’s an opportunity and I can make a difference, a unique difference, I would like to keep serving. I just don’t want to do two-year elections.”

“I don’t think it would be very easily done,” he said of a White House bid. “All I know is I have a heart to serve our country, and I have a vision.”

2028 field: Bacon said he likes Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin and Secretary of State Marco Rubio as potential candidates. But he took a jab at Vice President JD Vance.

“He’s a contender. I like him personally, but I wish he saw the Russian threat a little better,” Bacon said.

Russia-Ukraine war: Bacon, who has been critical of Trump’s handling of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and his “appeasement” of Vladimir Putin, said whoever ordered the pause on weapons to Ukraine should be fired.

“President Trump has done worse than Biden [on Ukraine], and I’m embarrassed to say that,” Bacon said. “I don’t like it. He seems to have a blind spot with Putin. I don’t know what purpose it serves to withhold weapons to Ukraine and not see that Putin is the invader.”

Read the full interview here (with photos from Frank Thorp V) →

That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner and Dylan Ebs.

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